China's First Big Jet Airliner Is Set To Land In Africa, Germany And Thailan

Ralph Jennings ,  

Contributor

Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

China’s first jet airliner equipped to compete with mid-sized planes from Airbus and Boeing made its first test flight Friday in Shanghai and it didn’t crash. That mission augurs well for what may be years of test flights for the C919 made by Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, or COMAC. A series of smooth tests would help the Shanghai-based developer position its C919 aircraft as a rival to the Airbus A320 or the Boeing B737. That’s precisely the plan: let COMAC ascend to the status of its international peers, proving hyper-patriotic China can join the world civil aviation VIP club. But who’s going to fly the C919 once tests end?
Initial forecasts say the two-aisle aircraft with 158 to 174 seats each will find a market only in China and a few sympathetic countries, but few if any in the West. According to Chinese media and the latest analyst predictions for the short to mid-term, here’s where you might find a C919 waiting at the departure gate.

A member of staff is congratulated as he steps out of China's home-grown C919 passenger jet after its maiden flight at Pudong International Airport in Shanghai on May 5, 2017. (ALY SONG/AFP/Getty Images)

1. China’s rugged outback. Test flights in inevitably receptive domestic airspace should include “hot and high” regions, says Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at Teal Group Corp., a U.S.-based aerospace and defense market research firm. Those tests to make sure the aircraft can handle varying levels of heat and air pressure might take it to Lhasa at 3,656 meters above sea level in Tibet. The city of Urumqi in the Chinese region of Xinjiang might be on the go-to list as well, being surrounded by high mountains with summer highs around 30 degrees Celsius.
2. China, everywhere. Chinese airlines make up 90% of the 570 orders placed so far for C919s, according to the state-run China Daily online. Buyers to date include Air China, China Southern, China Eastern, Hainan Airlines and Sichuan Airlines, the news report With that list of flagship names, the aircraft could land in just about any of China’s more than 200 airports. Sichuan Airlines, per its name, flies a lot in Sichuan Province in the southwest. Leasing companies, mostly in China, have placed around 250 of the pre-orders. “It'll undergo several years of test flights before it's operational," says Richard Bitzinger, senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. "And it'll probably fly only locally, within China, for a while."
3. Bangkok-based City Airways made a batch of the few pre-orders from other countries, China Daily online says. The 6-year-old airline with seven planes, per its Wikipedia entry (the official website is down), grounded its only active aircraft last year before a flight to Hong Kong on safety concerns, according to this news report.
4. Africa. Chinese news reports say some pre-orders went to Africa, but they do not specify countries or airlines. The idea makes sense. China for years has offered African countries economic benefits in exchange for access to natural resources. The C919 may cost relatively little to operate and maintain compared to its peers, Chinese reports say. That perk would appeal to a cost-conscious airline. The C919's manufacturer, directed by its boss the Chinese government, could always cut African airlines a deal on orders as part of the economic favor chain. Analysts with bets on Africa also suggest Latin America as a likely C919 client.
5. Germany (less likely). PuRen Airlines pre-ordered seven C919 in 2015, this industry news report However, after placing the order, the airline’s would-be operator Chinese-invested PuRen Germany GmbH declared insolvency. The company had taken over a small, flagging German airport and planned to build it up with the airline’s launch, which apparently never happened.